Trento vs Lecco
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-07 · 21:00 CET
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DLDLLThe score model made a Trento win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Trento 1.27 – 0.92 Lecco.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trento win | 43.9% | 47.5% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.9% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Lecco win | 26.7% | 23.5% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.4% | 43.0% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.9% | 24.1% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 47.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 30.2% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Trento 46.1 / Lecco 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.