Renate vs Novara
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-07 · 21:00 CET
DWLLL
LWLDWThe score model made a Renate win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Renate 1.24 – 0.93 Novara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate win | 42.9% | 40.3% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 30.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Novara win | 27.4% | 29.0% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 41.4% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.6% | 22.2% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | 48.2% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 28.4% | +0.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Renate 46.1 / Novara 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.