Ospitaletto vs Arzignano
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 21:00 CET
LLWDW
WWDWLThe score model made an Ospitaletto win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ospitaletto 1.18 – 1.03 Arzignano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto win | 39.0% | 44.2% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 31.2% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Arzignano win | 31.1% | 24.7% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 40.5% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 21.9% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 46.2% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 27.9% | -6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ospitaletto 25.6 / Arzignano 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.