Ospitaletto vs Lumezzane
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-08-22 · 18:00 CET
LLWDW
DWLWLThe score model made an Ospitaletto win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ospitaletto 1.19 – 1.08 Lumezzane.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto win | 37.9% | 39.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Lumezzane win | 32.5% | 29.7% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 41.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 22.7% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 48.2% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 28.7% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ospitaletto 24.3 / Lumezzane 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.