Giana Erminio vs AlbinoLeffe
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-08-22 · 21:00 CET
WWLLL
WLWDLThe score model made a Giana Erminio win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Giana Erminio 1.19 – 1.00 AlbinoLeffe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Erminio win | 39.7% | 35.4% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 31.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| AlbinoLeffe win | 30.3% | 33.6% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 37.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 20.0% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 45.4% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 26.7% | -7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Giana Erminio 42.5 / AlbinoLeffe 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.