Cittadella vs Pergolettese
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-08-22 · 18:00 CET
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DWLLDThe score model made a Cittadella win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cittadella 1.42 – 0.95 Pergolettese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 47.3% | 55.4% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.6% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Pergolettese win | 24.7% | 18.0% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 44.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 24.6% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 45.4% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 31.2% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cittadella 24.3 / Pergolettese 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.