Alcione Milano vs Renate
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-08-21 · 21:00 CET
DWWDD
DWLLLThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 24%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alcione Milano 0.87 – 0.83 Renate.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcione Milano win | 33.6% | 34.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 35.1% | 32.2% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Renate win | 31.3% | 33.6% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24.3% | 37.7% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.3% | 20.0% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 33.4% | 45.7% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 51.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 15.2% | 26.7% | -11.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alcione Milano 36.5 / Renate 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.