Pisa vs Sudtirol
Serie B, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
DWWDD
DLDLDThe score model makes a Pisa win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Pisa win — 63.7% vs 55.1% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pisa 2.20 – 0.99 Sudtirol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa win | 63.7% | 55.1% | +8.6% |
| Draw | 21.5% | 25.9% | -4.4% |
| Sudtirol win | 14.8% | 19.1% | -4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pisa 26.6 / Sudtirol 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pisa vs Sudtirol in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.