Cesena vs Catanzaro
Serie B, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
LDLWD
LDLDDThe score model makes a Cesena win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Catanzaro win — 33.9% vs 28.7% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cesena 1.50 – 1.40 Catanzaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 38.6% | 44.3% | -5.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.9% | +0.5% |
| Catanzaro win | 33.9% | 28.7% | +5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 55.0% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 34.2% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 58.7% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 37.2% | -1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cesena 41.8 / Catanzaro 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cesena vs Catanzaro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.