Modena vs Empoli
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 19:30 CET
DWWLW
LLLDLThe score model made a Modena win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Modena 1.45 – 0.88 Empoli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 49.1% | 58.0% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.2% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Empoli win | 21.6% | 16.8% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 50.5% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 30.1% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 50.7% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 34.5% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Modena 48.2 / Empoli 27.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Modena vs Empoli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.