Mantova vs Pisa
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 17:15 CET
WDWLW
LDWWDThe score model made a Pisa win the most likely outcome at 37%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mantova 1.43 – 1.47 Pisa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 35.5% | 35.1% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 29.1% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Pisa win | 37.3% | 35.8% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 48.9% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 28.6% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 55.3% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 33.4% | +3.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mantova 39 / Pisa 23.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mantova vs Pisa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.