Sampdoria vs Catanzaro
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-19 · 17:15 CET
LWLLD
WLLDLThe score model made a Catanzaro win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.18 – 1.37 Catanzaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 30.8% | 46.2% | -15.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.8% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Catanzaro win | 39.9% | 25.9% | +13.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 49.9% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | 29.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 54.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 33.7% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sampdoria 44.9 / Catanzaro 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sampdoria vs Catanzaro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.