Palermo vs Padova
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-19 · 15:00 CET
WDWWW
WLLLWThe score model made a Palermo win the most likely outcome at 57%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Palermo 1.65 – 0.78 Padova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 56.7% | 60.1% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 22.9% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Padova win | 16.4% | 17.0% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 56.4% | -12.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 35.6% | -12.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 53.9% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 38.5% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Palermo 49.1 / Padova 27.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Palermo vs Padova in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.