Cremonese vs Entella
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-19 · 15:00 CET
DDDLL
WDDWLThe score model made a Cremonese win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cremonese 1.72 – 0.90 Entella.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 55.4% | 46.8% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 28.8% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Entella win | 18.4% | 24.4% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 45.5% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 25.6% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 31.9% | +0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cremonese 21.4 / Entella 27.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cremonese vs Entella in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.