Ascoli vs Avellino
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-19 · 19:30 CET
LWDDW
DLWDLThe score model made an Ascoli win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ascoli 1.22 – 0.82 Avellino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 44.2% | 44.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.4% | 29.2% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Avellino win | 23.4% | 26.0% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.4% | 45.8% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.0% | 25.7% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.8% | 51.9% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 32.5% | -11.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ascoli 12.3 / Avellino 28.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ascoli vs Avellino in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.