Juve Stabia vs Cesena
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-18 · 20:30 CET
DDDWW
DDLDLThe score model made a Juve Stabia win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.43 – 0.96 Cesena.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 46.5% | 41.8% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Cesena win | 24.1% | 29.5% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 50.9% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 30.4% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 56.1% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 34.3% | -3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juve Stabia 41.6 / Cesena 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Juve Stabia vs Cesena in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.