Palermo vs Sampdoria
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-07 · 20:30 CET
LWWWW
WLDLLThe score model made a Palermo win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Palermo 1.69 – 0.76 Sampdoria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 58.3% | 57.1% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 24.9% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Sampdoria win | 15.5% | 18.0% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 51.2% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 30.3% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 51.5% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 34.9% | -8.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Palermo 48.4 / Sampdoria 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.