Palermo vs Juve Stabia
Serie B, Italy · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
LWWWW
DLLWLThe score model made a Palermo win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Palermo 1.55 – 0.88 Juve Stabia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 51.5% | 61.0% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 24.0% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Juve Stabia win | 19.8% | 14.9% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 48.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.7% | 28.6% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 47.6% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 33.0% | -5.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Palermo 47.9 / Juve Stabia 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.