Cesena vs Sampdoria
Serie B, Italy · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
DDLDL
LWLLDThe score model made a Cesena win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cesena 1.30 – 0.98 Sampdoria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 42.2% | 37.0% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 29.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Sampdoria win | 26.4% | 33.4% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 47.1% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 27.2% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 53.6% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 32.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cesena 37.1 / Sampdoria 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cesena vs Sampdoria in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.