Parma U20 vs Cagliari U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 CET
WDDWL
LDDLWThe score model made a Parma U20 win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parma U20 1.84 – 0.86 Cagliari U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma U20 win | 60.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Cagliari U20 win | 16.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parma U20 27.4 / Cagliari U20 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Parma U20 vs Cagliari U20 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.