Verona U20 vs Cesena U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-08-24 · 17:00 CET
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WWWDDThe score model made a Verona U20 win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Verona U20 1.70 – 1.68 Cesena U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verona U20 win | 38.5% | 35.2% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Cesena U20 win | 37.7% | 38.5% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 57.7% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.9% | 36.8% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 61.1% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.0% | 39.8% | +9.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Verona U20 37.3 / Cesena U20 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.