Sassuolo U20 vs Fiorentina U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-08-22 · 16:45 CET
DLDLL
WLDLDThe score model made a Fiorentina U20 win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sassuolo U20 1.43 – 1.70 Fiorentina U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo U20 win | 31.8% | 26.8% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.2% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Fiorentina U20 win | 43.5% | 47.0% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 52.7% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 32.3% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 55.9% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 36.2% | +5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sassuolo U20 37.4 / Fiorentina U20 37.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.