Galway vs Shelbourne
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-25 · 20:45 CET
DWLDL
DWWWLThe score model made a Shelbourne win the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Galway 1.15 – 1.15 Shelbourne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway win | 34.3% | 35.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 26.8% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Shelbourne win | 34.3% | 37.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 56.2% | -15.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 35.2% | -15.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 60.3% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 36.4% | -10.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Galway 47.2 / Shelbourne 51.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Galway vs Shelbourne in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.