Sligo Rovers vs St. Patricks
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-19 · 20:45 CET
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WWLLDThe score model made a St. Patricks win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sligo Rovers 0.77 – 1.51 St. Patricks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers win | 17.6% | 12.7% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 20.4% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| St. Patricks win | 53.5% | 66.9% | -13.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 57.3% | -17.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 36.7% | -16.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.4% | 50.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 39.7% | -11.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sligo Rovers 51.6 / St. Patricks 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sligo Rovers vs St. Patricks in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.