Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-18 · 21:00 CET
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DLLWWThe score model made a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 3:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.99 – 0.89 Waterford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers win | 61.8% | 62.0% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 21.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Waterford win | 14.7% | 16.3% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 58.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 37.2% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 54.3% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 39.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shamrock Rovers 50.8 / Waterford 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.