Dundalk vs Shelbourne
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-18 · 20:45 CET
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WDWWWThe score model made a Dundalk win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundalk 1.33 – 1.31 Shelbourne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk win | 35.9% | 39.1% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 26.5% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Shelbourne win | 34.8% | 34.4% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 58.2% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 37.8% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 61.6% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 39.3% | -3.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundalk 36.5 / Shelbourne 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dundalk vs Shelbourne in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.