Waterford vs Shelbourne
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-02 · 14:00
The score model makes an Shelbourne win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waterford 1.32 – 1.54 Shelbourne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford win | 31.4% | 32.5% | -1.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.8% | +0.5% |
| Shelbourne win | 41.3% | 40.7% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 55.7% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 34.8% | -2.5% |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 59.5% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 37.9% | +2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waterford 45.8 / Shelbourne 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.