Bohemians vs Galway
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-02 · 18:00
The score model makes a Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bohemians 1.62 – 0.90 Galway.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians win | 53.2% | 59.8% | -6.7% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 22.4% | +4.7% |
| Galway win | 19.8% | 17.8% | +2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 57.9% | -11.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 36.8% | -12.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 55.1% | -6.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 39.4% | -11.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bohemians 50.8 / Galway 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.