Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 18:45
The score model makes a Dundalk win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundalk 1.79 – 1.02 Sligo Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk win | 54.2% | 64.1% | -9.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 20.6% | +4.7% |
| Sligo Rovers win | 20.5% | 15.3% | +5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 60.9% | -7.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 40.1% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 55.5% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 42.0% | -8.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundalk 34.2 / Sligo Rovers 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.