Drogheda vs Shamrock Rovers
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 19:00
The score model makes an Shamrock Rovers win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drogheda 0.95 – 1.52 Shamrock Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda win | 22.5% | 21.2% | +1.3% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 27.1% | +1.0% |
| Shamrock Rovers win | 49.4% | 51.7% | -2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 47.4% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 27.4% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 50.4% | -1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 32.5% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drogheda 50.9 / Shamrock Rovers 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.