Drogheda vs Shamrock Rovers
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 21:00 CET
DDLLW
DWDDLThe score model made a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drogheda 0.95 – 1.52 Shamrock Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda win | 22.5% | 21.7% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.4% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Shamrock Rovers win | 49.4% | 50.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 46.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 26.8% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 50.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 31.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drogheda 50.8 / Shamrock Rovers 50.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.