Bray vs UC Dublin
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-11-01 · 16:00 CET
WWLDL
LLWDWThe score model makes a Bray win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Bray win — 52.4% vs 49.0% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bray 2.04 – 1.43 UC Dublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bray win | 52.4% | 49.0% | +3.4% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 23.8% | -3.6% |
| UC Dublin win | 27.3% | 27.2% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 64.4% | +2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.6% | 43.4% | +2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 64.8% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 44.0% | +0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bray 52.2 / UC Dublin 48.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bray vs UC Dublin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.