UC Dublin vs Bray
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-25 · 20:45 CET
LLWDW
WWLDLThe score model made a UC Dublin win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UC Dublin 1.93 – 1.44 Bray.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Dublin win | 49.7% | 37.4% | +12.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 24.5% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Bray win | 29.4% | 38.2% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | 64.7% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.4% | 45.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | 66.7% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.3% | 44.7% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UC Dublin 48.1 / Bray 52 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open UC Dublin vs Bray in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.