Treaty United vs Finn Harps
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-25 · 20:45 CET
LWLWW
LLLLWThe score model made a Treaty United win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Treaty United 1.69 – 0.91 Finn Harps.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United win | 56.6% | 56.5% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.8% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Finn Harps win | 20.8% | 19.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 55.3% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 34.6% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 54.4% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.7% | 37.6% | -15.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Treaty United 52.1 / Finn Harps 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Treaty United vs Finn Harps in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.