Cork City vs UC Dublin
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-18 · 20:45 CET
WLLWD
LLWDWThe score model made a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 5:1 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cork City 1.98 – 0.98 UC Dublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City win | 61.2% | 58.8% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 21.8% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| UC Dublin win | 18.6% | 19.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 67.1% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 48.2% | -13.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 63.3% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 46.9% | -12.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cork City 32.8 / UC Dublin 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cork City vs UC Dublin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.