Bray vs Treaty United
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-18 · 20:45 CET
WWLDL
LWLWWThe score model made a Bray win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bray 2.00 – 1.11 Treaty United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bray win | 58.4% | 65.6% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 19.7% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Treaty United win | 21.3% | 14.7% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 61.6% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 41.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 55.2% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 42.2% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bray 51.8 / Treaty United 51.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bray vs Treaty United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.