Wexford vs Bray
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 16:00
The score model makes an Bray win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wexford 1.57 – 1.58 Bray.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wexford win | 38.3% | 32.1% | +6.3% |
| Draw | 22.9% | 26.4% | -3.5% |
| Bray win | 38.8% | 41.6% | -2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 54.9% | +5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.5% | 34.5% | +4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 58.6% | +3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 37.5% | +0.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wexford 49.9 / Bray 49.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.