Wexford vs Bray
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 18:00 CET
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WLLDWThe score model made a Wexford win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wexford 1.60 – 1.56 Bray.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wexford win | 39.5% | 32.4% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 26.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Bray win | 37.8% | 41.0% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 55.1% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 34.6% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 58.7% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 38.0% | +0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wexford 50.7 / Bray 50.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.