UC Dublin vs Treaty United
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 16:00
The score model makes a UC Dublin win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UC Dublin 1.77 – 0.90 Treaty United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Dublin win | 58.3% | 56.3% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 23.7% | -1.2% |
| Treaty United win | 19.2% | 20.0% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 56.1% | -6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 35.6% | -7.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 55.3% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 38.4% | -8.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UC Dublin 45 / Treaty United 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.