Longford vs Finn Harps
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 16:00
The score model makes a Longford win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Longford 1.64 – 0.98 Finn Harps.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longford win | 53.2% | 54.8% | -1.5% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.6% | -1.9% |
| Finn Harps win | 23.0% | 19.6% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 49.3% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 29.1% | -2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.8% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 34.0% | -8.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Longford 49.9 / Finn Harps 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.