Cork City vs Athlone
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 16:00
The score model makes a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 77%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cork City 2.32 – 0.60 Athlone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City win | 76.5% | 63.4% | +13.1% |
| Draw | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7% |
| Athlone win | 8.1% | 13.5% | -5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 54.8% | +0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 34.7% | -1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 40.2% | 50.4% | -10.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 37.6% | -7.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cork City 29.1 / Athlone 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.