Cork City vs Athlone
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 18:00 CET
WDWDL
WWWWDThe score model made a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 77%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cork City 2.31 – 0.58 Athlone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City win | 76.7% | 65.4% | +11.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.3% | 21.6% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Athlone win | 8.0% | 13.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 56.3% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 36.0% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.3% | 50.0% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 38.3% | -10.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cork City 30 / Athlone 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.