Treaty United vs Longford
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 18:45
The score model makes a Treaty United win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Treaty United 1.48 – 1.07 Longford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United win | 47.2% | 39.1% | +8.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 28.5% | -3.4% |
| Longford win | 27.7% | 32.4% | -4.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 49.2% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 29.3% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 54.7% | -4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 34.0% | -14.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Treaty United 50.1 / Longford 50.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.