Finn Harps vs Cork City
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 18:45
The score model makes an Cork City win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Finn Harps 0.81 – 1.84 Cork City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps win | 16.4% | 10.7% | +5.7% |
| Draw | 21.5% | 18.7% | +2.8% |
| Cork City win | 62.1% | 70.6% | -8.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 61.0% | -11.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 40.6% | -13.2% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 50.4% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 41.7% | -12.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Finn Harps 49 / Cork City 29.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.