Athlone vs UC Dublin
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 18:45
The score model makes an UC Dublin win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athlone 1.05 – 1.42 UC Dublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athlone win | 28.3% | 32.3% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.6% | -1.9% |
| UC Dublin win | 46.0% | 40.0% | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 53.2% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 32.9% | -9.3% |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 57.6% | -8.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 36.4% | -1.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athlone 50 / UC Dublin 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.