Mumbai City vs SC Delhi
ISL, India · 2026-11-01 · 12:30 CET
WWLDD
DLLLDThe score model makes a Mumbai City win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.9% vs 68.6% implied (+4.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mumbai City 1.71 – 0.93 SC Delhi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mumbai City win | 53.5% | 55.8% | -2.3% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 24.7% | +3.8% |
| SC Delhi win | 18.1% | 19.5% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 51.1% | -2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 31.4% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 51.1% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 35.4% | -1.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Mumbai City 22.7 / SC Delhi 11.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mumbai City vs SC Delhi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.