Inter Kashi vs Goa
ISL, India · 2026-11-01 · 15:00 CET
DLLDL
LDLDDThe score model makes a Goa win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Draw — 29.6% vs 24.3% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter Kashi 0.90 – 1.61 Goa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Kashi win | 18.6% | 17.8% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.3% | +5.4% |
| Goa win | 51.8% | 57.9% | -6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 46.1% | -0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 26.1% | -1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 45.6% | +4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 33.6% | -4.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Inter Kashi 11.6 / Goa 21.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Inter Kashi vs Goa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.