Mohun Bagan vs Punjab
ISL, India · 2026-10-31 · 15:00 CET
DWLWW
WLWDWThe score model makes a Mohun Bagan win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.6% vs 63.1% implied (+12.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mohun Bagan 1.66 – 0.85 Punjab.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohun Bagan win | 54.3% | 58.3% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 23.2% | +5.7% |
| Punjab win | 16.8% | 18.5% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 56.5% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 36.9% | -12.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 54.8% | -6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 38.9% | -12.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mohun Bagan 22.9 / Punjab 21.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mohun Bagan vs Punjab in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.