Chennaiyin vs Kerala Blasters
ISL, India · 2026-10-31 · 12:30 CET
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WWWLDThe score model makes a Kerala Blasters win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.3% vs 66.5% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chennaiyin 1.14 – 1.34 Kerala Blasters.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chennaiyin win | 29.2% | 36.3% | -7.1% |
| Draw | 32.0% | 27.4% | +4.6% |
| Kerala Blasters win | 38.8% | 36.3% | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 49.6% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 29.0% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 54.3% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 33.5% | -5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chennaiyin 22.8 / Kerala Blasters 22.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chennaiyin vs Kerala Blasters in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.