Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin
ISL, India · 2026-10-26 · 15:00 CET
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LLLDLThe score model makes a Mohun Bagan win the most likely outcome at 67%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.6% vs 62.1% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mohun Bagan 2.00 – 0.67 Chennaiyin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohun Bagan win | 66.8% | 70.2% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 19.6% | +4.0% |
| Chennaiyin win | 9.6% | 10.2% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 55.3% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 34.2% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | 44.7% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 37.9% | -7.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mohun Bagan 21.9 / Chennaiyin 21.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.