MTK Budapest vs Honved
NB I., Hungary · 2026-11-07 · 16:45 CET
LLWLL
LDWLWThe score model makes an MTK Budapest win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Honved win — 31.4% vs 28.5% implied (+3.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.71 – 1.43 Honved.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest win | 43.5% | 45.7% | -2.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.9% | -0.8% |
| Honved win | 31.4% | 28.5% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 58.0% | +2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 38.0% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 60.2% | +2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 39.6% | -0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: MTK Budapest 43.3 / Honved 11.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open MTK Budapest vs Honved in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.