Ujpest vs Zalaegerszegi
NB I., Hungary · 2026-09-20 · 14:45 CET
DWDLL
WLWLDThe score model made an Ujpest win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ujpest 1.53 – 1.31 Zalaegerszegi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ujpest win | 41.4% | 50.8% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 24.9% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Zalaegerszegi win | 31.4% | 24.3% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 59.1% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 38.3% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 59.9% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 40.6% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ujpest 43.7 / Zalaegerszegi 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ujpest vs Zalaegerszegi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.