Nyiregyhaza vs Ferencvaros
NB I., Hungary · 2026-09-20 · 19:30 CET
DLDLL
WDDDDThe score model made a Ferencvaros win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 0.92 – 1.95 Ferencvaros.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyhaza win | 16.2% | 23.7% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.9% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Ferencvaros win | 60.4% | 52.4% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 59.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 37.4% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 59.0% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 40.1% | -0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nyiregyhaza 36.6 / Ferencvaros 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nyiregyhaza vs Ferencvaros in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.